One step forward, two steps straight off a cliff, that’s been the story of my World Cup wagers so far. Mexico’s last‑minute goal made it four losses from six, and the whole thing could’ve looked completely different if John McGinn hadn’t been caught flat‑footed in first‑half stoppage time, or if Czechia had shown even the faintest pulse in their so‑called “performance” against Mexico. Honestly, it might be the worst effort I’ve ever seen from a European nation at a World Cup, and I lived through some grim England tournaments.
But we move. We have to. Thursday brings the deciders in Groups D to F, and there are some cracking games on the slate. Time to dust ourselves off, embrace the chaos, and see what we can claw back.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Curacao v Ivory Coast
World Cup Group E, Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, USA, 10pm CET, Thursday 25th June
Prices: 17.00 Curacao, 7.40 Draw, 1.14 Ivory Coast
Curaçao pulled off a minor miracle holding Ecuador to a 0–0, one of those results that makes you blink twice and check the stats to make sure it actually happened. Now they run straight into an Ivory Coast side who only need a point to secure second place, and I just don’t see lightning striking twice. With the attacking weapons the Ivorians have, they should avoid the same fate Ecuador suffered against the plucky Central Americans.
Curaçao did manage to score against Germany, and Eloy Room turned into a national hero with that performance against Ecuador, but the prices on his saves line are completely unplayable. The bookies have finally caught up.
Yan Diomande, though, now that’s where the fun is. He’s been one of the breakout stars of the entire tournament, constantly involved, constantly dangerous, and if goals are expected here (and they are), he’s going to be right at the heart of everything Ivory Coast create.
So I’m backing him to either score AND assist, and hopefully both, in another star turn. This should be one‑way traffic, and Diomande is the man driving the bus.
Tip: Yan Diomande to score anytime @ 2.27. 1 unit; Yann Diomande to assist @ 3.75 @ 0.75 units.
Ecuador v Germany
World Cup Group E, New York New Jersey Stadium, Rutherford, USA, 10pm CET, Thursday 25th June
Prices: 5.60 Ecuador, 4.50 Draw, 1.49 Germany
Germany have already wrapped up top spot, so we’re almost certainly getting the B‑team here. Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz, all likely wrapped in bubble wrap on the bench. Ecuador, meanwhile, have to win to get through, which is hilarious when you remember they’ve somehow gone two full games without scoring a single goal.
They’re a defensive side by nature, their best players are all at the back, but they can’t sit in here. They have to abandon the caution, push bodies forward, and actually try to play football. And that, ironically, is exactly what Germany want. Even rotated, they’re the tournament’s top scorers, and they’ll happily pick off a desperate Ecuadorian side chasing something they haven’t managed once so far: a goal.
It makes this a weird one to call. Ecuador need it, Germany don’t. Ecuador can’t score, Germany can score for fun. Ecuador will attack, Germany will counter. It’s a tactical mess in the best possible way. So the sensible angle? Both teams to score. Ecuador’s need meets Germany’s firepower, and somewhere in the chaos, both nets should get a shake.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.77. 1 unit.
Japan v Sweden
World Cup Group F, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, USA, 1am CET, Friday 26th June
Prices: 1.85 Japan, 3.50 Draw, 4.30 Sweden
I’m not a statistician, but I’m fairly sure Sweden are the first team in World Cup history to win their opener 5–1 and then get absolutely thumped 5–1 in the next. It’s a bizarre little record, and it makes them almost impossible to get a proper read on. They actually had more shots than the Netherlands, whose xG was only 2.61, so the scoreline was doing a bit of creative storytelling there.
Japan, meanwhile, have been quietly excellent. They handled Tunisia with ease and nicked a point off the Dutch, which puts them in a lovely position to take at least second place from this group. A draw suits them just fine, and Sweden only need a point to make sure they’re through as well, so it’s genuinely surprising to see the draw priced as generously as it is.
Both sides have shown they’d rather attack than sit in, and the BTTS price is tempting, but the devil in me wants something a bit more mischievous. So I’ve put together a couple of paths to victory in the staking plan, because with these two, anything from a 0–0 to a 4–4 feels entirely plausible.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.71. 1.5 units; Draw @ 3.50. 0.75 units.
Tunisia v Netherlands
World Cup Group F, Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, USA, 1am CET, Friday 26th June
Prices: 25.00 Tunisia, Draw, 1.09 Netherlands
Tunisia have had an absolutely shocking campaign, and things aren’t about to get any kinder as they run head‑first into a hungry Netherlands side in Kansas City. A 5–1 battering, a 4–0 battering, a manager sacked in the middle of it all, statistically they’re the worst team at the tournament, and you don’t need an Opta graphic to see why.
The Dutch, meanwhile, are flying. They smashed Sweden 5–1, and it was only a sloppy late set‑piece that stopped them turning over the hyped‑up Japanese as well. They still need to win the group, goal difference might matter, and Ronald Koeman doesn’t strike me as the type to say “go easy on them, lads”. There’ll be no mercy here.
Tunisia looked like they’d downed tools against Japan, and they’ve conceded inside the first ten minutes in both games so far. If they start like that again, this could be a very long afternoon. Cody Gakpo has been the main man for the Oranje, everything they do goes through him, so a little three‑leg same‑gamer built around him is exactly the kind of bet that gets Tommy’s pulse going. One‑sided game, one standout star, one tidy price. That’ll do.
Tip: Netherlands to win, over 3.5 goals & Cody Gakpo to score @ 4.14. 1 unit.
Turkey v USA
World Cup Group D, Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, USA, 4am CET, Friday 26th June
Prices: 3.80 Turkey, 3.85 Draw, 1.81 USA
USA have done their job as hosts and served up a big slice of humble pie to every pundit who said they’d bottle it. Two wins from two, six goals, and doing it with a bit of swagger as well. Pochettino’s got them playing actual football, who knew the Stars and Stripes had that in the locker?
Turkey, meanwhile… oh dear. Bitterly disappointing doesn’t even cover it. Losing to group outsiders Australia was bad enough, but then falling to a 10‑man Paraguay side? Zero goals, zero points, zero joy. A team that came in with high hopes and have delivered absolutely nothing.
Now, here’s the problem: USA have already won the group, so rotation is coming. That makes this a nightmare to call. They’ll still want to put on a show for the Californian crowd, but when half the XI changes, anything can happen. And Turkey? They’re capable of either rolling over completely or suddenly remembering they’ve got two genuinely elite young talents.
Those two, Kenan Yildiz and Arda Güler, are the only reason this game is even remotely bettable. Yildiz has had twelve shots already this tournament with an xG of 0.45, while Güler has racked up eleven efforts with three on target. They’re shooting on sight because nobody else in that team is doing anything.
So the play here is simple: don’t overthink the match, don’t try to predict the mayhem, just back the two lads who actually fancy it. Both to have a shot on target is a perfectly fun, speculative little punt in a game that could genuinely be anything from 0–0 to 4–3.
Tip: Arda Güler & Kenan Yildiz both to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.25. 1 unit.
Paraguay v Australia
World Cup Group D, San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, USA, 4am CET, Friday 26th June
Prices: 2.80 Paraguay, 2.23 Draw, 3.75 Australia
This one is a simple equation – a draw suits both nations and the price has been crunched accordingly. As a result, the market has been completely skewed so it’s difficult to make a clean assessment on this game and so I’m going to avoid the extra word count and steer clear.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.