Day 2 of the group deciders actually treated us alright for once. Three winners straight up, a fourth dragged over the line by the old “super‑sub” promo, and the fifth only one leg short of glory in a very pleasing World Cup wagers column.
At this stage of a World Cup you usually get chaos, jeopardy, limbs everywhere, but with eight third‑place teams going through, half these sides are playing like they’ve already booked their flights to the knockouts.
Case in point: Paraguay v Australia. One of the worst World Cup matches I’ve ever sat through. I’ve seen pre‑season friendlies with more ambition. I’ve seen testimonial matches with more urgency. I’ve seen my beloved Granny move quicker getting up from the sofa.
But here we are: Day 16. The penultimate day of group action. One last proper swing before the knockout madness begins. And on paper at least, there’s plenty to get stuck into; Actual football matches, actual stakes, actual teams who might even try to win. Let’s see if we can squeeze a bit more juice out of this thing.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Norway v France
World Cup Group I, Boston Stadium, Foxborough, USA, 9pm CET, Friday 26th June
Prices: 4.60 Norway, 4.40 Draw, 1.62 France
This is the one I’ve had circled since the draw. And after the way Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland have started this tournament, it’s somehow become even bigger. Two absolute monsters of the modern game, head‑to‑head, both chasing the Golden Boot like it owes them money. Mbappé can even close the gap on Messi’s all‑time World Cup tally here, not that he needs any extra motivation.
Both sides have rattled in seven goals already, and while Norway have conceded in both games, they only let in five across the whole of qualifying. But let’s be honest: this isn’t a night for defensive spreadsheets. This is two heavyweight attacks swinging from the first bell.
The one thing France do have in their corner is William Saliba. The Arsenal man sees Haaland up close more than most, and whenever City play the Gunners, Haaland usually drifts onto Gabriel because he gets nothing out of Saliba one‑on‑one. That matters here. It won’t stop Haaland entirely, nothing does, but it tilts things just enough.
So I’m keeping it simple: Mbappé anytime. The devil on my shoulder is whispering about the double at nearly 7/2, but the sensible play is the Frenchman to find the net. Big game, big stage, big players — and he’s the biggest of the lot.
Tip: Kyllian Mbappé to score anytime @ 1.89. 1 unit.
Senegal v Iraq
World Cup Group I, Toronto Stadium, Toronto, Canada, 9pm CET, Friday 26th June
Prices: 1.21 Senegal, 6.40 Draw, 12.00 Iraq
Both these sides can feel a bit unlucky to have landed in a group this unforgiving, but only one of them has the luxury of feeling sorry for themselves, and it’s not Senegal. They need goals. Plural. Lots of them. Sitting on a -3 goal difference after winning AFCON (on the pitch, at least) is a rough spot, and it means they have to go for it here.
And the good news for them? Iraq have shipped eight already. When a team who must win by two or more meets a team who can’t keep the back door shut, you’re basically signing up for 90 minutes of chaos. Proper slapdash stuff. Senegal will come flying out from the first whistle, and that sort of desperation always leaves space the other way too. In a match Senegal expect to win, and need to win big, this has all the ingredients for a bit of a goalfest.
Tip: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.22. 1 unit.
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia
World Cup Group H, Houston Stadium, Houston, USA, 12am CET, Saturday 27th June
Prices: 2.55 Cape Verde, 3.25 Draw, 2.70 Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde walk into this one with the kind of opportunity nobody on earth thought they’d have — a genuine shot at the knockout rounds. A point probably does it for them, while a Saudi win sends the Saudis through, so it’s perfectly poised and absolutely dripping with jeopardy.
Their performance against Uruguay was unbelievable. Proper heart, proper organisation, and a real threat on the break. Ryan Mendes and Jamiro Monteiro looked like they’d been playing on this stage their whole lives, calm, technical, dangerous. There’s nothing flukey about them anymore; they’re here on merit.
Saudi Arabia will set up very differently to Uruguay and Spain, but they have to attack to win, and that actually suits Cape Verde. They’re comfortable against anyone, deep block, mid-block, countering, playing through pressure, they’ve shown they can adapt.
So with everything still on the line in this group, this feels like another one that could properly open up. Cape Verde chasing history, Saudi chasing qualification… it’s got all the ingredients for a cracking game.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05. 1 unit.
Uruguay v Spain
World Cup Group H, Estadio Guadalajara, Zapopan, Mexico, 12am CET, Saturday 27th June
Prices: 5.80 Uruguay, 3.80 Draw, 1.60 Spain
Another one I’ve been looking forward to since the draw — though for Uruguay, this has turned into a scenario they never imagined. They’re suddenly staring at the possibility of going home early. They need at least a point, maybe more, and even that might not be enough. Spain, meanwhile, need a win to secure the smoothest possible route through the knockouts, and after tearing through Saudi Arabia in response to the Cape Verde wobble, they’re not easing off.
I backed Spain to win the whole thing before a ball was kicked. France have looked sharp, but I’m not shifting. La Roja are still the side to beat. So I’m expecting them to handle this, and with the talent on the pitch, there are a few angles worth a swing.
Lamine Yamal looked like he’d been playing World Cups since he was in nappies, one goal, one assist on his first start. Pedri has threatened in both games without landing, but I’m giving him a breather from the main action this time.
On the Uruguay side, Federico Valverde is the engine. Captain for club and country, everywhere at once, and he’ll want to make a statement up against Pedri, Yamal, Olmo, Cubarsí, the whole lot. He’s already had ten shots (two on target) and won five duels. Bentancur has won fourteen duels himself and will be right in the thick of it again with Spain expected to dominate the ball.
Plenty of ways this one can open up, and I’m taking a couple of them.
Tips: Lamine Yamal to score or assist @ 1.66. 2 units; Fede Valverde to make 2+ tackles, Fede Valverde to have 1+ shot on target & Rodrigo Bentancur to make 3+ tackles @ 6.66. 0.5 units.
Egypt v Iran
World Cup Group G, Seattle Stadium, Seattle, USA, 3am CET, Saturday 27th July
Prices: 2.43 Egypt, 2.60 Draw, 3.65 Iran
This one’s a much simpler read than most of the chaos we’ve been dealing with. Iran have stumbled their way through the group, a draw with New Zealand in a game they absolutely had to win, then another scrap for a point against Belgium. Egypt have followed a similar path, but the difference is they actually put New Zealand away when it mattered, and they can seal top spot here with a win.
At the prices, it’s hard not to like them. Salah, Marmoush and the rest of that front line just have too much class for an Iran side that’s determined, yes, but also limited and looking a bit leggy at this stage. Egypt have gears Iran simply don’t.
Tip: Egypt to win @ 2.43. 1 unit.
New Zealand v Belgium
World Cup Group G, BC Place, Vancouver, Canada, 3am Saturday 27th July
Prices: 13.00 New Zealand, 7.40 Draw, 1.17 Belgium
Along with Uruguay, Belgium have been one of the biggest let‑downs of the tournament. Same old story: loads of talent, loads of hype, and then ninety minutes of flattering to deceive. New Zealand, on the other hand, have been the complete opposite, plucky, organised, and far better than anyone expected. They were good against Iran, had their moments against Egypt, and they’re not here to make up the numbers.
Belgium should come good where it matters, just like Brazil eventually did on Thursday, and there’s no real doubt they win this game. But I wouldn’t expect it to be a procession. The All Whites can still qualify with a win, and that kind of hope does strange things to a team, it gives them legs, belief, and a level of stubbornness Belgium haven’t dealt with well so far.
So yes, Belgium should get the job done… but they’ll have to fight for every inch, every point, and their place in the knockouts.
Tip: Belgium to win & under 3.5 goals @ 2.33. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.