Friday’s World Cup wagers were an utter bloodbath, there’s no other way to put it. Senegal got the job done against Iraq but aside from that nothing came close to coming in really. It’s left me feeling down, but at least the finish line to this marathon group stage is in sight, as we try to claw back some credibility in the last round of games.
I’m keeping it simple with a few of these, and hopefully that can give us some confidence as we head into the last-32. Up the Tommy!
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Panama v England
World Cup Group L, New York New Jersey Stadium, Rutherford, USA 11pm CET, Saturday 27th June
Prices: 15.00 Panama, 7.40 Draw, 1.15 England
England beat Panama 6-1 on their way to the semi finals of the 2018 World Cup and a similar scoreline is expected here if the odds are anything to go by. Panama have improved since then though and battled hard in both their matches so far, probably deserving something from each of them. Those are the margins in World Cup football though, which England know only too well, so they will be going for goals here to ensure they top the group in case of a Ghana win against Croatia.
There isn’t much value in the main markets, so a couple of player props have caught my eye. Harry Kane scored a hattrick against these opponents in that 2018 fixture and knows a few goals here catapults him back into the race for the Golden Boot. After a shocking miss against Ghana, he’ll want to put things right.
England’s set pieces are also a real weapon, as shown against Croatia, and with Declan Rice to be rested, Bukayo Saka will be the chief set-piece taker in the Three Lions team. The Arsenal man also has a strong relationship with Kane, so is good value to pick up another assist in this game, given England could score a few here, so if you’re looking for a same gamer, he’s worth chucking in. Kane the main bet though.
Tip: Harry Kane to score 2+ goals @ 3.05. 1 unit
Croatia v Ghana
World Cup Group L, Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, USA 11pm CET, Saturday 27th June
Prices: 1.88 Croatia, 3.10 Draw, 4.70 Ghana
A fascinating contest between two contrasting sides here. Ghana will be delighted with their position in the group at this stage, and are already assured of a place in the knockouts, while Croatia need at least a point to make absolutely sure that they get through.
Given the draw suits both sides, I’m surprised it hasn’t been backed accordingly, as we can assume England will beat Panama to take top spot in the group. Croatia are not the force of old, and both teams beat Panama 1-0, while Ghana resisted England far better than Croatia, so these two are evenly matched as far as I’m concerned and I intend to bet accordingly.
Tip: Draw @ 3.10. 1 unit.
Colombia v Portugal
World Cup Group K, Miami Stadium, Miami, USA, 1.30am CET, Sunday 28th June
Prices: 3.40 Colombia, 3.60 Draw, 2.01 Portugal
Portugal came to life in this tournament against Uzbekistan with a thumping 5-0 win, while Colombia nicked it late against DR Congo. The interesting thing about this game is the runner-up from this group may get a favourable tie in the last-32, as it’ll be Croatia or Ghana for them, while the group winners could get Ecuador or Senegal. The path after that looks much better for the winner of this game though, with Switzerland, Iran or Algeria awaiting in the quarter finals.
Both teams like to attack and with Portugal needing a win, the onus is on them to take the game to Colombia, which could set up an end-to-end contest. That opening draw with DR Congo may just have snapped Portugal into life and I fancied them to win this group at the start of the tournament, so I’ll stick with them and back Ronaldo & Co to get the job done, just, in this one.
Tip: Portugal to win @ 2.01. 1 unit.
DR Congo v Uzbekistan
World Cup Group K, Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, USA, 1.30am CET, Sunday 28th June
Prices: 1.62 DR Congo, 3.90 Draw, 5.00 Uzbekistan
DR Congo have performed admirably at this tournament and know that a win will take them to the knockout stage after an excellent draw with Portugal in the first game. They followed that up with a resilient display against Colombia, and while the score could have been more for the South American side, you couldn’t fault the brilliant display from Congolese goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi. It was only a deflected goal that beat him, while Uzbekistan capitulated against Portugal and have pretty much nothing to play for now.
With DR Congo on the brink of history, and a dangerous strike partnership of Cedric Bakambu and Yoan Wissa, keep things simple with a victory for the Africans here to secure a place in the last-32 next week.
Tip: DR Congo to win @ 1.62. 1 unit.
Algeria v Austria
World Cup Group J, Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, USA, 4am CET, Sunday 28th June
Prices: 3.80 Algeria, 2.20 Draw, 2.85 Austria
I made the mistake of not backing the draw in the Paraguay v Australia game on Thursday and I’m not making that mistake again. The draw suits both these teams perfectly well, just as it did Sweden and Japan, Paraguay and Australia & Egypt and Iran, so there’s no need to complicate things here. Throw in the 0-0 if you want some extra fun for this one, but honours even is the simple option even though the price does look bonkers.
Tip: Draw @ 2.20. 1 unit.
Jordan v Argentina
World Cup Group J, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, USA, 4am CET, Sunday 28th June
Prices: 16.00 Jordan, 7.20 Draw, 1.15 Argentina
This is another simple one, Leo Messi has been unplayable so far in this tournament and now comes up against group whipping boys Jordan where he can really take the race for the Golden Boot by the scruff of the neck. With Mbappe and Haaland both failing to score on Friday, this is a real opportunity for the GOAT to pile up even more goals, and I don’t see Jordan putting up much of a fight given they’re already heading home after this game. Simple again, Argentina make it 3/3 and Messi does what he does yet again.
Tip: Argentina to win & Lionel Messi to score @ 1.79. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.