Rafael Leão was about an inch of crossbar away from being Tommy’s toast of the tournament. He laid on Portugal’s winner against Croatia, and also nearly took the roof off the stadium with a second‑half thunderbolt that would’ve landed a 16/1 same‑game multi and put me into full victory‑lap mode. So close yet so far, the eternal rhythm of punting.
Still, it’s been a solid enough day. Switzerland are marching along nicely against Algeria, the units are ticking over, and we roll into the weekend with a bit of swagger as we try to get back on top of the bookies. The last of the Round‑of‑32 ties land on Friday, and if the knockout stages so far are anything to go by, Mayhem, quality, late drama, and heartbreak, long may it continue.
Let’s set up another siege on the oddsmakers.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Australia v Egypt
World Cup Last-32, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, USA, 8pm CET, Friday 3rd July
Prices: 3.30 Australia, 2.85 Draw, 2.46 Egypt
This is a sneaky little match‑up. Australia produced one of the results of the group stage when they turned Turkey over 2–0, and that’s the exact blueprint for how they’ll try to handle the Pharaohs in Dallas. Egypt went unbeaten in their group, but with their only win coming against New Zealand, there’ll be plenty of belief in the Socceroos camp that they can drag this into a proper scrap.
Egypt definitely have the bigger names, but Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush have both underwhelmed so far, and Salah’s knock against Iran has to raise questions about whether he can get through a gruelling tie. Australia are a well‑drilled unit, they’ll deny space, stay compact, and look to hit on the break. Under 2.5 is insultingly short, and I can’t split these two with any conviction, so I’m leaning into the grind: the 0–0 or 1–1 feels the angle.
Tip: Draw & under 2.5 goals @ 2.93. 0.75 units.
Argentina v Cape Verde
World Cup Last-32, Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, USA, 12am CET, Saturday 4th July
Prices: 1.14 Argentina, 7.20 Draw, 19.00 Cape Verde
The bookies have finally woken up to Lionel Messi after letting us back him at 2.27 to score in an Argentina win over Austria. He didn’t even start and still found the net against Jordan, and now he’s tied with Kylian Mbappé in the Golden Boot race having played a game fewer. He’s shorter than 1/2 to score against one of the stories of the tournament in Cape Verde, and while you keep telling yourself he has to stop scoring eventually, he just keeps defying logic. He’s been a joy to watch, and the way the Albiceleste players and fans orbit around him is something else entirely.
For Cape Verde, this is an FA Cup third‑round tie in all but name. The West African minnows up against the reigning world champions and the greatest player of all time, the whole country will be glued to it. But the journey ends here. Argentina have scored in both halves in each of their last six matches, and I think they’ll do it again, with Messi in the slip to grab at least one of them.
Tip: Argentina to win, score in both halves & Lionel Messi to score @ 2.22. 1 unit.
Colombia v Ghana
World Cup Last-32, Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, USA, 3.30am CET, Saturday 4th July
Prices: 1.41 Colombia, 4.30 Draw, 8.20 Ghana
The last of the Round‑of‑32 ties pits impressive Colombia against miserly Ghana in Kansas City. It took Ghana three and a half hours to concede a goal at this tournament, Croatia finally breaking them down half an hour into their third group game, and until that moment they’d looked like a superb defensive unit. Colombia, meanwhile, did exactly what was expected against Uzbekistan and DR Congo before being the better side against Portugal. Portugal beat Croatia, Croatia beat Ghana, and that formline gives me enough conviction to fancy Colombia strongly here. The challenge is finding a market to supplement the short‑priced South Americans.
Colombia’s scoring pattern helps. They got two of their three after the break against Uzbekistan, needed 76 minutes to find the winner against DR Congo, and their best chances against Portugal came in the second half. Combine that with Ghana sitting deep and making this a grind, and I’m leaning towards another late show from the Colombians.
I also can’t resist getting involved with Daniel Muñoz. I rarely touch the first‑goalscorer market, but the right‑back opened the scoring in Colombia’s first two games, and one of his trademark overlapping runs could easily be what finally cracks Ghana open. After my Rafa Leão near‑miss, I’m backing Muñoz in the anytime assist and goals markets too. He even managed 0.06 xA in just three minutes against Portugal. Against Ghana, I’m getting aboard the Muñoz train.
Tip: Colombia to win & score more goals in the 2nd half @ 2.70. 0.75 units; Daniel Munoz to assist @ 4.70. 0.75 units. Daniel Munoz to score anytime @ 6.20. 0.5 units. Daniel Munoz to score first @ 12.00. 0.25 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.