It all started so well for my World Cup wagers on Friday with Australia and Egypt playing out the 1–1 I’d lined up. From there, the whole thing went off a cliff. Argentina couldn’t find a second‑half goal, or even beat Cape Verde, and Daniel Muñoz looked lively without landing the assist or the opener in Colombia’s win over Ghana. I’m staring down the barrel again, but we’ve got two cracking last‑16 ties on Saturday to drag us back into the light, so let’s get on with the show.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Canada v Morocco
World Cup Last-16, Houston Stadium, Houston, USA, 7pm CET, Saturday 4th July
Prices: 4.90 Canada, 3.40 Draw, 1.78 Morocco
Morocco are one of just two nations still flying the flag for Africa, and they can keep that run going by taking out the co‑hosts here. They dominated a very good Netherlands side, needed a last‑minute equaliser and then penalties to get through, but Canada simply aren’t operating at that level. They huffed and puffed against South Africa in the last‑32 and never really looked like breaking them down.
Morocco reached the World Cup semi‑finals in 2022 and the AFCON final earlier this year, this is a generationally good team built for tournament football, and the quality all over the pitch is obvious. Achraf Hakimi is the headline act, but Ismael Saibari has been one of the breakout stars of the whole competition, and you can see exactly why Bayern Munich have dropped €50m on him.
Canada are a likeable outfit, but they haven’t faced a truly elite side yet. That changes now. Morocco are too quick, too strong, too polished, and they should get this wrapped up inside the 90.
Tip: Morocco to win @ 1.78. 1.25 units
Paraguay v France
World Cup Last-16, Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, USA, 11pm CET, Saturday 4th July
Prices: 15.00 Paraguay, 6.80 Draw, 1.18 France
France are roaring towards the World Cup trophy and they’ve landed a favourable last‑16 tie against Paraguay. The South Americans produced the shock of the round by knocking Germany out on penalties, but let’s be honest, they were helped massively by one of the worst VAR interventions of the tournament, chalking off a perfectly good German goal in extra time. Les Bleus had no such drama. They blew Sweden away, and Kylian Mbappé set the tone with a gorgeous opener. He’s hit braces in three of his four games, and his duel with Leo Messi for the Golden Boot is turning into one of the great World Cup subplots.
Given the form he’s in, I’m backing him to score again in a France win, and with France already on 13 goals for the tournament, over 2.5 goals should land too.
There’s also a fun same‑gamer I can’t ignore. Michael Olise is the leading assist‑maker at this World Cup and has had more than enough chances to score himself, I think he finally breaks his duck here. Him and Mbappé look perfectly in sync, so I’m backing them both to score, with a decent chance they end up assisting each other. It pays around 15/1, so keep stakes sensible, but France are rampant, they’re a joy to watch, and with goals flying in from everywhere, it’s a lovely little swing.
Tip: France to win, Kyllian Mbappe to score & over 2.5 goals @ 2.15. 1 unit; Kyllian Mbappe to score & assist and Michael Olise to score & assist @ 15.83. 0.25 units
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.