Another World Cup wagers day, another split. Morocco did their job, Canada didn’t, and my France same‑gamer went down in flames before it even had a chance to breathe. That’s been the theme of this World Cup so far: one step forward, one step straight into a pothole. Profit feels like a distant dream at this point, a shimmering mirage somewhere beyond the horizon, but we keep walking anyway because that’s what sickos like us do.
But Sunday… Sunday is different. Sunday is proper football. Two absolute crackers, arguably the best pair of fixtures in the entire round, and exactly the kind of slate that makes you forget the losses, forget the heartbreak, forget the VAR trauma, and convince yourself that tonight is the night everything flips.
So we go again. We fire up the hope machine. We take a couple of swings across the US and Mexico later tonight and try, desperately, heroically, foolishly, to drag this World Cup campaign back into the black.
Let’s chase it. Let’s embrace the chaos. Let’s see if Sunday can finally be the day the tide turns.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Brazil v Norway
World Cup Last-16, New York New Jersey Stadium, Rutherford, 10pm CET, Sunday 5th July
Prices: 1.79 Brazil, 3.65 Draw, 4.30 Norway
The team with the most brutal draw at this World Cup has to be Norway. Dumped into the group of death with France and Senegal, they somehow clawed their way to six points and second place, only to be rewarded with Ivory Coast in the round of 32 and now Brazil, the most successful nation in World Cup history. It’s been a gauntlet.
And Brazil haven’t exactly been cruising either, with Morocco in their group and Japan waiting in the last‑32. That comeback against Japan, sealed by Gabriel Martinelli in the 95th minute, was the classic reminder that you never, ever write off the Selecão. They bend, they wobble, they look half‑asleep for stretches… and then they punch you in the throat in stoppage time.
Now they run into the Norwegian viking horde at MetLife in what should be an absolute belter. Brazil will have faced every team they met in the 1998 World Cup group stage at this tournament, a tournament they reached the final of, so they’ll be clinging to that as some kind of omen.
But that ’98 Norway side didn’t have Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb tearing it up. And the formlines are impossible to ignore: every Norway game has sailed over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring, and all three of their group matches cleared 4.5. Brazil’s two sternest tests, Morocco and Japan, also saw both teams find the net. Everything points in the same direction: two teams who go for it, two teams who can be got at, and a tie that feels too open, too chaotic, too explosive to stay quiet.
So that’s the angle. Both teams to score, and overs. It’s been the story of Norway’s tournament, and Brazil’s big games have followed the same script. Let’s lean into the madness.
Tip: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 1.98. 1 unit.
Mexico v England
World Cup Last-16, Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico, 2am CET, Monday 6th July
Prices: 3.10 Mexico, 3.15 Draw, 2.38 England
This one should be another belter. Mexico have impressed at this World Cup and are still yet to concede, but I’m not fully sold on the level of opposition they’ve faced. Even Ecuador — the supposed dark horses — completely wilted in the Azteca cauldron. That’s England’s main concern here. Player for player, England are the better side; Raúl Jiménez has just dropped into the Championship and a big chunk of this Mexico squad plays in Liga MX, which is miles below the level England’s core operates at domestically.
England’s real vulnerability has been the full‑back areas, and that’s exactly where Mexico have looked sharpest. Julián Quiñones and Roberto Alvarado have been their standout threats, and they’ll demand a huge defensive shift from Bukayo Saka. I’d probably lean Anthony Gordon on the left as well, just to give England’s back line the extra insurance it needs, alongside Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson tucking in to smother transitions.
If England can quieten the Azteca early and start finding Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham in the final third, they have more than enough to siege the fortress. It might be one of those ties that drags deep into the night, but I’m backing Thomas Tuchel’s men to get it done, by hook, by crook, or by sheer bloody stubbornness.
Tip: England to qualify @ 1.71. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.