Spain carried on their, and my, World Cup wagers journey with a 1-0 win over Portugal yesterday, Mikel Merino’s last‑minute header landing another profitable day’s work. Then Belgium absolutely thumped the USA in one of the most talked‑about fixtures of the tournament. And honestly, you had to feel for the American players. None of this was their fault. The powers that be interfered, the Balogun decision became a circus, and you can only conclude it helped Belgium while acting as a distraction for Mauricio Pochettino’s side.
Now we’re onto the last of the Last‑16 ties, and two more belting fixtures before – wait, what? A day off? A whole day off? Before the quarter‑finals get underway on Thursday.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Argentina v Egypt
World Cup Last-16, Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, USA, 6pm CET, Tuesday 7th July
Prices: 1.33 Argentina, 4.90 Draw, 9.60 Egypt
Argentina step into the last 16 looking far more alive than they did a week ago. Cape Verde dragged them into a dogfight, played the game of their lives, and forced Argentina to find another gear. They did, and now they move into conditions far more favourable than the humidity‑soaked slog in Miami. This is a better environment for their football, and a better environment for Lionel Messi, who continues to shape this tournament even when he’s not directly on the scoresheet.
Egypt’s record flatters them. Their only win came against a weak New Zealand side, and even then they never looked convincing. Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, the two players who should be carrying their attacking threat, are totally off colour. Egypt have huffed and puffed through the group stage without rhythm, identity or a reliable route to goal. Against Argentina, that becomes a terminal problem.
Messi, meanwhile, is quietly building a statistical storm. He has created four big chances at this tournament without registering a single assist, a rare outlier for a player of his profile. For comparison, Michael Olise has five big chances created from five games, with five assists, and sits on 2.26 xA to Messi’s 1.7 xA. Either Olise is massively overperforming, or Messi is massively under-returning. The more likely answer is that Messi’s assist is coming, and soon.
Argentina will want this done in 90 minutes, especially with Switzerland or Colombia waiting in the quarter finals. That urgency feeds directly into Messi’s motivation: this is the fixture where he’ll want to add to his tally before the margins tighten. Everything points to the champions continuing this extraordinary, Messi‑inspired journey.
Tip: Argentina to win & Lionel Messi to score @ 1.87. 1 unit; Argentina to win & Lionel Messi to assist @ 2.82. 0.75 units; Argentina to win, Lionel Messi to score & assist @ 4.30. 0.25 units.
Switzerland v Colombia
World Cup Last-16, BC Place, Vancouver, Canada, 10pm CET, Tuesday 7th July
Prices: 3.45 Switzerland, 3.05 Draw, 2.46 Colombia
Switzerland come into the last 16 as one of the tournament’s most quietly dominant sides. Their opening slip against Qatar looks more like an anomaly with every passing game. Since then, they’ve put together one of the strongest form lines of the entire competition: 4–1 against Bosnia, 2–1 against Canada, and a hugely impressive 3–0 dismantling of Algeria. That Algeria performance in particular felt like a statement. Switzerland controlled every phase, moved the ball with real authority, and their front trio of Manzambi, Vargas and Embolo looked electric. If they hit that level again, they can cause a largely untested Colombian defence serious problems.
Colombia have also impressed, but in a very different way. They’re sharp, aggressive and well‑coached, but they’ve struggled to break teams down consistently. Since their opening 3–1 win over Uzbekistan, they haven’t scored more than once in any game. They create moments, not waves. They look dangerous, but not ruthless. And in knockout football, that matters.
This is where the prices feel too far apart. Colombia deserve respect, they’ve been one of the tournament’s standout sides, but Switzerland have been better than the market seems to think. They’re structured, experienced, and they carry multiple goal threats. They don’t rely on chaos or individual brilliance; they rely on control. And against a Colombia side that sometimes leaves gaps and sometimes runs out of ideas, that’s a very useful profile.
The only hesitation is timing. Switzerland can win this, but whether it’s inside 90 minutes, after extra time or even on penalties is harder to call. What’s easier to say is that they’re live underdogs with a real chance of progressing.
Tip: Switzerland to qualify @ 2.27. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.