My main man Dom is away this week, so I’ve been handed the reins and told not to break anything. Which is a bit like giving the keys to a greyhound and asking it to drive carefully.
Last week was a mixed bag. Everton did the business against Chelsea, which was a winner, but one I should’ve backed properly instead of bottling it with draw no bet. And Auckland? Let me down again. That’s two weekends in a row they’ve cost me, and I think it’s time we stopped pretending they’re invincible at home. The romance is dead. Then came the Carabao Cup Final where the under 2.5 goals never looked in doubt as Arsenal froze on the big stage once again.
Now, I’ll be honest, international bets aren’t usually my thing. Too many variables, too little rhythm. But these European play-off games? One-legged, high-stakes, cagey as hell. That’s my kind of chaos. Unders bets are calling my name like a dodgy tipster in a pub toilet.
Still, a new weekend is a new dawn for punting. Let’s get stuck in.
All odds provided from Stake.com.
Italy v Northern Ireland
World Cup Play-Off Semi Final, Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy, 8.45pm CET, Thursday 26th March
Prices: 1.27 Italy, 5.60 Draw, 11.00 Northern Ireland
Italy need to stop doing this to themselves. Honestly. For a country that bangs on about heritage, culture, and being the beating heart of world football, they’ve spent the last decade acting like a bloke who keeps missing job interviews because he “forgot to set an alarm.” Two World Cups missed, two group‑stage exits before that… but aye, they won it in 2006, so maybe they’re just spacing them out like a rare comet.
Enter Gennaro Gattuso, a man who looks like he’d two‑foot tackle his own reflection if it blinked at him the wrong way. He’s not here for excuses, he’s not here for romance, he’s not here for another “Italy dominated possession but forgot to score” post‑mortem. He’s here to drag this team back to the World Cup by the scruff of the neck, and Northern Ireland have unfortunately wandered into the blast radius.
Now, fair play to the Northern Irish lads, they’ve massively overachieved to get this far. They’ve squeezed every drop out of their squad, they’ve grafted, they’ve scrapped, they’ve annoyed bigger teams, and they’ve done it all with a handful of top‑flight players and a few lads who’ve barely kicked a ball at that level. It’s a brilliant story. But stories don’t win you games in Bergamo when the Azzurri are in a foul mood.
And make no mistake, Italy are in a foul mood. They’ve been embarrassed too many times. They’ve been the punchline for too long. They’ve had to watch other nations parade around at World Cups while they sit at home pretending to care about the Nations League. This is their moment to reassert themselves, and if they turn up properly, even at 70%, they should handle this comfortably.
Northern Ireland will fight, they always do, but there’s only so much fight you can muster when the other team has better players in every single position and a manager who looks like he’d ban smiling if he thought it would help.
For me, it’s simple: Italy win, Italy control the game, Italy keep it tidy at the back. No drama, no nonsense, no third World Cup disasterclass. Just a professional job from a team that desperately needs one.
Tip: Italy to win to nil @ 1.82. 1 unit.
Slovakia v Kosovo
World Cup Play-Off Semi Final, Tehelne Pole, Bratislava, Slovakia, 8.45pm CET, Thursday 26th March
Prices: 2.09 Slovakia, 3.20 Draw, 3.75 Kosovo
This one has “tight, nervy, low‑scoring nonsense” written all over it. Slovakia aren’t the flashiest side in Europe, but they’re organised, disciplined, and absolutely horrible to break down when it matters. With Skriniar marshalling things at the back, Lobotka running the show in midfield, and Hancko and Dubravka adding that extra layer of calm, they’re a proper grown‑up football team.
Kosovo deserve credit for getting this far — they’ve punched above their weight for years — but Bratislava is a brutal place to go when the home side smell a World Cup spot. I think this is where the journey ends.
Tip: Slovakia to win @ 2.09. 1 unit.
Australia v Cameroon
FIFA Series, Accor Stadium, Sydney, Australia, 6.10am CET, Saturday 28th March
Prices: Australia, 3.75 Draw, 4.40 Cameroon
Australia and Cameroon meet in Sydney for what FIFA are desperately trying to brand as something meaningful, but let’s be honest, it’s a glorified friendly with a shiny sticker on it. Cameroon didn’t make the World Cup, half their big names have decided they’ve got better things to do than fly halfway around the planet, and yet… I actually think they’ll have a proper go here.
Christian Kofane looked electric against Arsenal in the Champions League, Karl Etta Eyong has quietly bagged five in La Liga for Levante, and Danny Namaso has been around the block with Porto. There’s pedigree in that front line, even if the midfield behind them looks like it was assembled via raffle.
Australia, though, are savvy. They know how to manage these fixtures, they’re physical, they’re organised, and they’ll create chances of their own. Cameroon can hurt them, but the Aussies will hit back.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.91. 1 unit.
Bonus Multi
Right, look, as a general rule, we don’t tip multis. They’re dangerous, they’re seductive, they’re the football betting equivalent of texting your ex after three pints. But the boss is away, the shackles are off, and I’m feeling philosophical about Thursday night football.
This one just feels right. Three games, all of them pressure cookers, all of them with teams who’d rather not concede than actually try something adventurous. Slovakia v Kosovo? Cagey. Czech Republic v Ireland? Cagey. Ukraine v Sweden? Cagey with a side of cagey. These are the fixtures where evenly matched sides stare at each other for 90 minutes like two blokes waiting for the other to blink first.
So yes, I’m doing it. I’m putting up the unders multi. Not because it’s sensible, not because it’s responsible, but because it’ll make the whole night sing to me.
Under 2.5 goals in Slovakia v Kosovo, Czech Republic v Ireland & Ukraine v Sweden @ 4.42. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.