Safe to say I’m a bit salty today after Belgium scored from one of their two shots on target, only fashioning 0.34 xG across the 90 minutes. My under 2.5 goals was perhaps getting a bit big for my boots and the safer option would have been the 3.5, but we can’t reverse time in puntopia. On the positive side I’m now in hedging territory with my Spain antepost bet (I know, I know, Tommy never hedges, but profit is profit) and now we look ahead to two quarter finals on Saturday, both should be epics, and we start with my Haaland v Kane… sorry, sorry, Norway v England wagers. I’m throwing a few darts – strap in.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Norway v England
World Cup Quarter Final, Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, USA, 11pm CET, Saturday 11th July
Prices: 4.00 Norway, 3.65 Draw, 1.87 England
I’m not going to win a Nobel prize for stating this but I said to my wife before the start of the quarter finals that this would be the highest scoring of them. Norway still haven’t kept a clean sheet at this tournament, and across ten combined matches involving these two, the average goals per game is 3.2.
England kept Ghana and Panama quiet, sure, but they shipped two against Croatia and Mexico, and with all due respect, Petar Musa and Raul Jimenez are not Erling Haaland. This is England’s biggest test by a mile, and they might have to do it without Marc Guehi, their best centre‑half and a bloke who trains with Haaland every day at club level. Add in Reece James, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka running on fumes, and everything screams chaos. That’s why I’m siding with over 3.5 goals. It’s the only logical conclusion when the football gods are in this kind of mood.
The next dart is Jude Bellingham to have a goal involvement. England’s No.10 was the heartbeat against Mexico, scoring two scintillating goals to go with his match‑winning contributions earlier in the tournament against Croatia and Panama. Against DR Congo he posted 0.66 xG and 0.29 xA, so the only quiet game he’s had was Ghana, and even then he was still knitting things together. He’s the spark, the ignition, the lad everyone looks at when England need something. I’m genuinely surprised he’s above evens to contribute again. As the tournament wears on, he’ll only get more influential. Time to latch on.
And obviously, obviously, we couldn’t have a betting plan for this game without Harry Kane and Erling Haaland. The pair have been electric. Haaland has basically dragged Norway to this stage by himself with seven goals. He didn’t play against France, so he’s averaging a goal per hour, which is a stat so stupid it should come with a health warning. Kane’s numbers aren’t far off: six goals and an assist, two penalties, and 72 goals for club and country since the start of 2025/26. If I’m expecting goals — and I am — it feels borderline illegal not to back both of them to score, especially with extra time included.
Finally, with so little between the sides, I’m backing the draw. England haven’t faced a team of Norway’s level yet, and I fancied Haaland and co to go deep from the start. Nothing has changed my mind. With Haaland in the XI, they can beat anyone in a one‑off game, and that’s before you even mention Ødegaard, Sørloth, Berg and Ryerson, all coming off strong Champions League campaigns and giving this squad a proper backbone.
England are rightful favourites and will be buzzing after that famous, ridiculous win at the Azteca, but with issues at right‑back and fitness doubts over Guehi and Rice, this feels like another drawn‑out, energy‑sapping slog. And it could easily come down to penalties. It’s England at a major tournament, do they ever get through one of these without a shootout?
Tip: Jude Bellingham to score or assist @ 2.06. 1 unit; Over 3.5 goals @ 2.70. 1 unit; Draw @ 3.65. 0.5 units; Erling Haaland & Harry Kane both to score @ 3.91. 0.5 units; Game to be decided by penalty shooutout @ 6.00. 0.5 units.
Already advised: Norway to win the World Cup @ 26.00. 1 unit each-way.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.