Here we are then, my World Cup final wagers, game 104 of 104, and what a journey it’s been. One of the most entertaining World Cups I can remember, despite all the political meddling and pathetic rule changes that threatened to overshadow it. The expanded format didn’t dilute the quality one bit, if anything, it gave us more stories, more shocks, and more punting angles to exploit.
From the early group stages to the drama of the knockouts, it’s been a ride. I’ll admit the finish has been disappointing from a betting perspective, but I’m sitting on a Spain outright ticket that needs cashing, so the stakes are personal. Thanks to everyone who’s followed along, it’s been a blast, and now we’ve got one last dance before the curtain falls.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Spain v Argentina
World Cup Final, New York New Jersey Stadium, Rutherford, USA, 9pm CET, Sunday 19th July
Prices: 2.30 Spain, 3.00 Draw, 3.45 Argentina; To Lift the Trophy: 1.65 Spain, 2.25 Argentina
The two best sides in international football meet in the showpiece, and nobody can argue they don’t deserve to be here. Spain have looked assured throughout, finally getting the respect they deserve after dismantling France in the semi‑final. Argentina, by contrast, have lived on the edge all tournament, but they keep finding a way. Their suffocation of England in the semi was ruthless, Tuchel’s side had the game in their hands, only to implode, and once Argentina dragged it into their kind of contest, they were always going to walk through the door.
Spain thrive on control, Argentina on chaos, a clash of styles that makes this final fascinating. I said before the France semi that whoever won would be champions, and I’m not changing my tune now. Spain are the most streetwise team in the tournament, their midfield trio of Rodri, Dani Olmo and either Pedri or Fabián Ruiz dictating tempo like nobody else. Argentina will look to disrupt, to drag it into a fight, but Spain have the tools to keep them at arm’s length. Their defence has been superb, their structure disciplined, and their ability to suffocate opponents unmatched.
And then there’s Messi. This is expected to be his final international appearance, and FIFA will want the narrative neat: Messi crowned with the Golden Ball, Mbappé handed the Golden Boot. That means Messi will be involved, even if he doesn’t score, he’ll assist, he’ll create, he’ll leave fingerprints all over the game. He’s already assisted three of Argentina’s last five goals, and his influence is impossible to ignore. He didn’t score against Switzerland or England, but he was the architect of everything good they did. Spain’s defence has been superb, but Messi is the one player capable of unlocking it, and you can bet he’ll be at the heart of Argentina’s threat.
The market expects a cagey affair, but I don’t buy it. The last two World Cup finals saw four and six goals in regulation time. Argentina have scored at least two in every game, Spain have the control to punish them if they overcommit, and the overs look too big. This won’t be a tactical stalemate, it’ll be a proper final, with goals on the menu. Finals are often cagey, but when you’ve got Messi chasing his last hurrah and Spain looking to cement their dominance, the stage is set for fireworks.
Argentina’s right side has been a weak spot all tournament. Zico, Dan N’Doye and Anthony Gordon all found joy there, and Alex Baena is a live price to test them again. Alexis Mac Allister is another angle, he scored against Switzerland, hit the post twice against England, and keeps arriving in dangerous areas. Add those two to the ticket and you’ve got a same‑game multi that pays big.
What a final in store. Spain for the outright, Messi for the narrative, goals for the punters. Vamos.
Tips: Both teams to score @ 1.85. 1 unit.
Same Game Multi: Both teams to score, Lionel Messi to score or assist, Alexis MacAllister & Alex Baena to have a shot on target @ 17.54.
Already advised: Spain to win the World Cup @ 5.50. 5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.